Sunday, August 2, 2015

Think Fast Slow (edit)

Zajonc offered an eloquent summary of his program of research:
The consequences of repeated exposures benefit the organism in its relations to the immediate animate and inanimate environment. They allow the organism to distinguish objects and habitats that are safe from those that are not, and they are the most primitive basis of social attachments. Therefore, they form the basis for social organisation and cohesion - the basic sources of psychological and social stability. 
WYSIATI:
* Overconfidence: As the WYSIATI rule implies, neither the quantity nor the quality of the evidence counts for much in subjective confidence. The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little. We often fail to allow for the possibility that evidence that should be critical to our judgment is missing - what we see is all there is. Furthermore, our associative system tends to settle on a coherent pattern of activation and suppresses doubt and ambiguity.

*Framing effects: Different ways of presenting the same information often evoke different emotions. The statement that "the odds of survival one month after surgery are 90%" is more reassuring than the equivalent statement that "mortality within one month of surgery is 10%". Similarly, cold cuts described as "10% fat." The equivalence of the alternative formulations is transparent, but an individual normally sees only one formulation, and what she sees is all there is.

*Base-rate neglect: Recall Steve, the meek and tidy soul who is often believed to be a librarian, The personality description is salient and vivd, and although you surely know that there are more male farmers than male librarians, that statistical fact almost certainly did not come to your mind when you first considered the question. What you saw was all there was. 


Halo effect
Halo effect is a cognitive bias in which an observer's overall impression of a person, company, brand, or product influences the observer's feelings and thoughts about that entity's character or properties. It was named by psychologist Edward Thorndike in reference to a person being perceived as having a halo.

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